UNDERSTANDING THE HORSE RACE ADVANTAGE RANKING                     UPDATE 8 December 2006

S & G's "Ranking" allocates points to each horse in a race based on its relative strength to the other horses in a race.   These horses are then sorted using S & G's point system.  The horse with the highest point number is identified as the horse that is most likely to win that race.  This point system and the horses' relative strengths to each other can be used to determine how much or how little to wager on a particular race.

For example, if the first horse has a point value of 26.0 and the second horse has a point value of 19.0, then the large point spread (26.0 - 19.0 = 7.0) indicates that the first horse is significantly better than the second horse.  On the other hand, if the point spread between the first horse and the second horse is small, e.g., the first horse has a point value of 26.0 and the second horse has a point value of 25.0 (26.0 - 25.0 = 1.0) then the first horse is only slightly better than the second horse and the probability of either horse to come in first is high.  The relative strength factor can be used for wagering strategies.

Comparing Ranking Values - You will find races where the top horses have values in the high twenties and other races where the top horses have values in the lower twenties.  This points to horses having run more often and also points to the class that these horses have run in.  Generally speaking, horses that have run "good" in higher classes, e.g., allowance or stake races, run more consistently than horses that are still trying to break their maiden (i.e., have never won a race).  Therefore, the probability of horses with ranking numbers in the high twenties are more likely to run "true to form" than horses with ranking numbers in the low twenties.

In some cases, there is not enough historic data on a horse (e.g., first time starters) and S & G's system will allocate 0.0 points to that horse. However, our point system factors in the horses' workouts, trainer standings and jockey standings.  The more consistent fast workouts a horse has prior to his/her debut, the more likely that horse will be "in the money".    S & G recommends against wagering races that have horses with 0.0 or very low values.  While a horse's breeding, jockey standing, trainer standing, workouts, etc., could be used to identify the better horse in a race, the probability of identifying the "correct winning horse" is significantly lower and these horses are likely to upset the apple cart.

Where the first two horses have a significantly higher point allocation (greater than 6) than all the other horses in a race, then these two horses are good candidates for an exacta box . Where the first three horses have a significant higher point allocation than all the other horses in a race, then these three horses are good candidates for an exacta box or/and trifecta box.

Weighing the probabilities against your  Return on Investment (ROI) on a 5 horse trifecta box - At times, you will find that the fourth and fifth horse's ranking numbers are very close to the third horse's or top three horses' ranking numbers.  That means that the probability of the fourth and fifth horse to come "in the money" is likely and one could thus consider these horses in a trifecta box as well.  A $1 dollar 5 horse trifecta box is $60.  However, the probable return on your $60 investment should warrant such wager.   A 5 horse trifecta wager should be evaluated by looking at the track odds of each horse selected for that 5 horse trifecta box, i.e., where there are three horses with odds less than 2, the probable payoff, i.e., your return on investment, will most likely be less or close to your wager and you should not even consider such wager.  Only when there is at most two horses (one horse is preferred) with track odds less than 2, could you consider a 5 horse trifecta box wager. You should always be looking for opportunities to not just increase your probability of winning, but also maximizing your profits.  Note that one does not maximize profits by wishing for long shots to come in.    If there is a long shot in our top selection, it is because they "floated" to the top naturally through our ranking system.

Good luck using the Horse Race Advantage!!!!